Economic activity and the productivity that underlies it has a major impact on our ability to provide things that people value – from homes to hospitals to holidays. If we are to achieve continued improvement in the standard of living for UK citizens by 2040, growth will be key.

Where is the UK economy now, and where is it heading? There is no shortage of commentary, data and debate. These fundamental facts aim to distil the wealth of information into the core, foundational evidence and trends that policymakers should have front of mind as they consider the options, providing clear signals amongst the noise. Unsurprisingly, they illustrate that the UK economy is having significant difficulties at the moment with GDP per capita, real wages and productivity performing poorly both absolutely and comparatively. There is also some indication of the proximate causes of this: regional imbalances and low investment both now and historically appear as prime culprits. Whilst employment looks healthier there are warning signs there too, from growing long-term sickness to the impact of demographic changes by 2040.

Of course in considering these foundational facts it is worth bearing in mind that economic outcomes are just one way of measuring social progress. Whilst overall GDP growth, rising productivity and real wages tend to be associated with higher living standards, economic measures don’t give us the whole picture. Not least, aggregate economic growth can mask inequality in varying forms. Across the UK 2040 Options project, we will be considering a wide set of outcomes from health to education and wealth inequality.

Read the ten things we think people working in economic growth and productivity should know, by downloading our fundamentals document.

By Ben Szreter, Senior Policy Manager at UK 2040 Options
 
What do the public perceive as the most formidable challenges for the government to tackle by 2040? Our recent polling in battleground constituencies affords us some insight, looking not only at which issues the public think are most important for the future, but also the long-term challenges they think government is responsible for, and will most struggle to address.

The results of the polling encapsulate not only a snapshot of current societal anxieties and aspirations, but also a forward-looking expectation of the government’s role in society over coming years. It’s a reflection of the collective mindset when it comes to what government is capable of, and should be held responsible for, in the UK.
 

The easiest and hardest issues to solve by 2040

In our polling of 4,000 people in battleground Westminster constituencies, we asked: “Which of these issues do you think will be easiest and hardest for the government to solve by 2040?”

The issues that those in battleground constituencies believed would be the most difficult for the government to resolve by 2040 were:

1. Reducing carbon emissions to levels that combat the effects of climate change

2. Reducing inequality and poverty across society

3. Managing the numbers of both legal and illegal migration to the UK.

These views were fairly consistent across different ages and genders, with some slight differences such as people over 65 believing managing migration would be harder to solve (33% compared to an average of 22% for people under 65).

On the other end of the spectrum, the issues perceived as easiest to solve by 2040 were:

1. Ensuring the NHS is fully funded and staffed (note: this was also the fourth highest on the list of the most difficult)

2. Reducing inflation and the high cost of living

3. Ensuring energy prices are affordable for ordinary people.

Again, there was a lot of consistency across age and genders, though those under 35 tended to think reducing the cost of living would be easier, compared to older age groups.

 

 
In areas where the public view challenges as harder for the government to solve, there may well be more willingness to consider a variety of options for solving the problems.

This could create the space for fostering deeper public engagement and a conversation about the choices we face. By developing a variety of options, we can encourage a collective and considered approach to tackling society’s most pressing challenges. This necessitates a more transparent, flexible approach to problem-solving and policy-making including the need for collaboration between government, businesses, NGOs and individuals in solving these immense challenges.

What is government completely responsible for?

We also explored the views of the public in these battleground constituencies on the UK government’s level of responsibility for issues. A clear majority believe the government is ‘completely responsible’ for three key areas. These are: accountability and trust in government (73%), ensuring the NHS and the education system are fully funded (70% and 61% respectively), and wide-ranging socioeconomic concerns such as managing migration (63%) and reducing inflation (59%).

 

 
People (in these battleground constituencies at least) hold the government in Westminster responsible for a wide variety of issues, from public services to energy prices. There seems to be a fairly maximalist view of the role of the state in the UK. If the government is viewed as responsible for many of these things, then developing workable options for dealing with these issues will be viewed as an important part of developing a vision for the country.

It’s worth noting that those who said that they intend to vote Labour held the government more responsible for issues than those who said that they intended to vote Conservative. This was by an average of 10 percentage points per issue and was true for all issues except for managing migration and promoting respect for British values. For these issues, Conservative-intending voters held government more responsible than Labour-intending voters by a small margin.

Complex tapestry of expectations

The charts above illustrate a complex tapestry of expectations and realities, in which some issues are seen as more solvable than others, and the government’s perceived role varies from being the primary actor to part of a wider societal response.

The role of government is multifaceted and complex, with challenges that range from those within its direct control to those that are largely beyond its influence. For example, while it would be unreasonable to expect the UK government to single-handedly resolve the war in Ukraine, it seems more plausible to anticipate the UK government addressing the NHS backlog.

As we look towards the horizon of 2040 in the UK 2040 Options project, these insights offer a roadmap for navigating the complex terrain of public expectations and government responsibilities. They underscore the need for a government that is not only proactive in addressing the issues within its control but also innovative and collaborative when it comes to tackling those that seem insurmountable.

The public perception of the UK government’s capabilities and limitations serves as both a challenge and an opportunity – a challenge for the next government to meet high expectations, and an opportunity to engage the public in an honest dialogue to find solutions to the toughest problems.

Foreword

Despite the many column inches dedicated to debating contentious issues, there is beneath it all a high degree of consensus among the public about the biggest challenges we face. The research we’ve conducted with Opinium confirms that this is true in the battleground constituencies for the next election. There are high levels of alignment on public priorities, with cost of living and the NHS streets ahead of other issues in most of the country, regardless of voting intention.

This research also shows us, though, that if you ask people which issues are most important to resolve by 2040, for the next generation, things look a little different. Issues that struggle to get a look in when the question is asked of the “now” suddenly surge up the priority list when people are asked to think beyond present day challenges. Issues like climate, economic growth and affordable housing become much more salient.

UK 2040 Options is a new policy project led by Nesta and the Behavioural Insights Team, offering policymakers the opportunity to think ambitiously about different pathways to address the biggest challenges facing the country – not just today, but in the near future too.

With our partners and a wide range of contributors we aim to provide a space for constructive debate about the country’s future across a set of defining issues. In each policy area we’ll work with established expertise and emerging thinkers alike, assessing the policy landscape, exploring the most fertile or important choices in more depth, curating a set of options for policy solutions and then testing, interrogating and improving them. Where are we heading as it stands? What can we change? And what can we learn by looking at them together, in the round?

There’s more to come as we kick off the work in each of our initial themes: economic growth, net zero, health, education, wealth and income inequality, technology, tax, power and place. Do get in touch if you would like to contribute to any of these themes, and we’ll be sharing our thoughts and findings as we go.

Alex Burns, Director of UK 2040 Options

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Methodology

At the next general election, Labour would need to win in an additional 124 parliamentary constituencies to achieve an overall majority. We polled the 124 constituencies that Labour came closest to winning (ie, where they were in second place) in the 2019 general election. We also polled the 100 constituencies most narrowly won by the Conservatives in 2019. There is a significant degree of overlap between these two groups of constituencies so the total number polled in our data is 144. We believe these 144 constituencies (126 of which were won by the Conservatives in 2019) are a good representation of the “battlegrounds”; these are the people and places most likely to decide which party wins the next election.

Findings

Labour leads in Britain’s battleground constituencies

Labour is ahead in the 144 constituencies that are likely to decide the next election, with 39% of the vote, while the Conservatives are at 32%. This amounts to a 10-point swing from the Conservatives to Labour since the 2019 election based on 2019 voting in the same seats. For the Conservatives, this represents a drop of 12 points with Labour up eight percentage points.

Among these battleground constituencies, Labour and the Conservatives are essentially neck and neck in the South West (34% to 36%) and the East of England (36% to 35%). Labour’s lead on the Conservatives is 8 points in the North West (43% to 35%), 17 points in Yorkshire (46% to 29%), 16 points in the North East (51% to 35%) and 15 points ahead in the Midlands (48% to 33%). In Scotland, Labour are on 32%, behind the SNP on 37%.

Voters in these battleground constituencies are strongly driven by dislike of other parties

Among all respondents, a dislike of other parties is the single biggest driver of voting intention (39%). This is the number one factor for people intending to vote Conservative, followed by economic policy and immigration.

For those intending to vote Labour, policy to deal with the cost of living is the number one factor driving voting intention, followed by health policy.

Europe remains an important factor only for those intending to vote Liberal Democrat or SNP, where underlying values also feature prominently in decision making.

Three in five people in battleground constituencies say they have not definitely decided which party to vote for

We found that 61% of people in these constituencies haven’t definitely decided who to vote for – 39% were definitely decided, 30% were fairly sure but not certain, 17% were still deciding between two or more parties and 14% said they had ‘no idea’ which party to choose.

Younger voters in these battleground constituencies are least likely to feel that the next election is important 

Younger people are more apathetic about the outcome of the next general election. While just 19% of people say that they don’t care about the next election, this rises to 28% of 18-34 year olds. 

Perhaps unsurprisingly, if you care less about the outcome of the next election you are far less likely to say that you will vote. Nearly all (96%) of those who have definitely decided which party to vote for at the next election care about the outcome – dropping to 74% of those who are yet to decide and 23% of those who do not care who wins.

Lots of people also feel poorly represented by the options available. Just 37% of respondents in these battleground constituencies feel well represented while 40% said none of the political parties represent their views and preferences. Both of these figures are slightly worse than comparative data in the nationally representative 2019 British Election Study where 46% of people felt represented and 35% did not. 

In these constituencies, women are significantly less likely to feel well represented than men (8 percentage points), people from minoritised ethnic backgrounds are less likely to feel represented than white people (7 percentage points), and people from lower income backgrounds are also less likely to feel represented than those from higher income backgrounds (10 percentage points).

Inflation, NHS, energy prices and immigration are seen as the most important issues

The cost of living comes out as the most important issue in almost every region (other than in Wales where health is most important) and among all age groups other than the over-65s (for whom health is also the most important issue). 

In second place overall, one in five people in battleground constituencies think that ensuring the NHS is fully funded and staffed is the most important issue facing the country. Respondents similarly would prioritise both help with the cost of living and NHS funding and staffing for any additional government spending.

The third most important issue is ensuring energy prices are affordable for ordinary people: 7% say it is the most important problem but a further 27% list it as a top three problem. Just outside of the top three is managing the numbers of both legal and illegal migration, with 10% indicating it is the most important problem and a further 13% listing it as a top three problem.

Issue prioritisation is also heavily determined by the age of respondents. Younger people are most concerned about economic and cost of living factors with 37% of 18-34 year olds choosing reducing inflation as a top priority. By contrast, just 21% of over-65s think it’s the top priority; instead they think that health is the top priority (27%).

When asked about longer term challenges, climate becomes much more important as a priority issue

It’s worth noting that there is often a significant difference between issues people are prioritising in the here and now versus those they consider to be the most critical in the longer term. In particular, reducing carbon emissions (up to 14% from 7%), fostering a higher growth economy (up to 9% from 6%) and ensuring affordable housing (up to 8% from 3%) rise in importance when people are asked to think about the longer term.

Issues that are prioritised for 2040 are much more widely spread compared to issues considered most important now, with the latter clustering heavily around two issues: inflation and the NHS. 

One in five (20%) younger people believe that inflation and the cost of living is the most important issue to resolve by 2040, whereas just 7% of over-65s agree. There is broad agreement overall about the importance of reducing carbon emissions to tackle climate change but younger respondents are the least likely to prioritise it as the most important long-term issue. This may be due to the priority placed by younger respondents on economic issues and affordable housing.

There is some divergence by age on both immigration policy and on protecting British values, as just 3% of younger people prioritise immigration policy compared with one in ten (10%) over-65s. Similarly 5% of over-65s think it’s most important to protect British values compared to just 1% of younger people. 

People in marginal constituencies are split on whether the UK Government should prioritise tackling current issues or making bold decisions for the future 

Half of people polled think the UK Government should focus on fixing specific problems in the here and now, while 42% feel it should make bold decisions about the future direction of the country to solve long-term problems. People are also split on needing continuity or a fresh vision (49% to 44% respectively). 

Perhaps reflecting hangover effects from the Truss premiership, respondents seem not to be in the mood for experimentation. There is a clear preference for incremental change with 72% choosing step-by-step, fully funded change over radical new ideas for positive change.

A majority of voters would rather increase taxes or keep them the same than cut them and spend less

Respondents in the UK’s battleground constituencies are divided between those who want to keep tax and spending at current levels (38%) and those who want to raise taxes to spend more on public services (36%). Just 12% expressed a preference for lower taxes and less spending, although this is low it is twice the number recorded by a nationally representative sample in the most recent British Social Attitudes survey in 2021. Even among people who have previously voted Conservative and thus who may traditionally support a smaller state, we found just 15% in battlegrounds want to cut taxes and spend less. 

Older respondents are significantly more likely to support tax increases than younger people, perhaps reflecting the continued squeeze on younger people’s spending power. Over-50s are more than ten percentage points more likely to support tax increases to fund public services than under-50s (43% to 31%).

People in battleground constituencies are pessimistic about the country but more optimistic about their families’ prospects

More people are more optimistic for their family’s future (50%) than they are about their own (45%). People are much more pessimistic about the country’s future, with only 40% thinking things will improve by 2040.

Wealth and health would make the biggest difference to the wellbeing and happiness of people in battleground constituencies

Asked what would make the biggest positive change to their personal wellbeing and happiness, 38% of respondents chose having more disposable income and 32% chose having more savings. Health is also important for people, with 29% choosing better physical health and 24% of people choosing better mental health. Beyond that, nearly 1 in 5 identify more free time or losing weight as their top priorities.

By Ben Szreter, Senior Policy Manager at UK 2040 Options

What issue does the government most urgently need to address? It’s a question that has no correct answer – but one that’s been put to the public again and again over the years.

Public concern has evolved over the decades, shifting from unemployment to public services to the economy to the EU. In this blog, we map these changing priorities and explore their implications for what the government should focus on.

The aim of UK 2040 Options is to bring fresh angles and insights about how we shape the the UK’s future by exploring the choices that the country faces over the next two decades. And the first question to ask is: what should the government prioritise?

Public perception is a dynamic landscape

Over the past four decades, the public’s perception of what the most important issues are has changed significantly. The chart below shows data from the monthly Ipsos Issues Index for the 12 months preceding each election since 1974 (see notes on the methodology below).

For elections in the 1970s, inflation gripped the nation’s attention, followed by unemployment in the 1980s and public services – in the form of education and healthcare – in the 1990s and early 2000s. More recently, economic issues, immigration and the EU have taken the spotlight. As we can see, these public concerns are not fixed: some fade away, as unemployment seems to have done, while others resurface – sometimes due to external factors and sometimes as a direct result of political strategies.

So what are the most important issues in the public mind right now? The chart below shows the most important issues for the public in the 12 months to May 2023.

It’s evident that the public’s concerns change over time and that they are both influenced by and influence the political choices of the day. But what do levels of public concern about these issues have to do with governmental priorities?

The other factors involved in governing effectively

While public opinion plays a significant role in shaping policy decisions, it is, of course, not the sole factor to consider. There are many more issues to consider beyond immediate public concerns. At a recent UK 2040 Options event, project sponsor Lord Gus O’Donnell argued that an effective government would prioritise issues of deep importance such as climate change regardless of how highly rated it is at any point in time as an issue of concern by the public.

A part of the conclusion of the Options for a New Britain work of 2009 (a precursor to our current UK 2040 Options project) was that there are various categories of government priority that go beyond those in the public consciousness but that must be addressed in order to effectively improve lives. As well as the issues focused on by the public, there will be a mix of political projects (think reducing inequality or reducing the size of the state), external imperatives such as climate change or geopolitical factors and more administrative concerns that must be addressed for effective delivery, such as public sector performance or devolution. Of course, there will be overlap between these categories too.

Public opinion will clearly be one of the major factors determining the debate we have about policy choices over the next year – but it won’t be the only one.

Our charts above offer an insight into the landscape of public concerns now and before elections over the last 50 years. As part of the UK 2040 Options project, we will be studying public concern, but also considering the intricate web of other challenges the next Government will need to consider in order to deliver effective government for the people of the UK. We can then aim to provide an assessment of the major decisions that the next government must consider and the options they could pursue in order to improve people’s lives.

Notes on the Ipsos Issues Index

• The Ipsos monthly issues index asks: “What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?” and “What do you see as other important issues facing Britain today?”
• The responses are unprompted and the data used in the graph is the percentage of respondents specifying the relevant issue across either of the two questions. This means that the total percentage of all issues is above 100% as individuals can choose multiple issues.
• The monthly sample size is around 1,000 every month and includes England, Scotland and Wales.

Politicians looking to form the next government should focus more on “how we should govern, as opposed to how we should campaign,” according to former Cabinet Secretary Gus O’Donnell.

Speaking at an event in advance of the launch of UK 2040 Options – a new forum for exploring and testing policy choices – O’Donnell, project sponsor for UK 2040 Options, argued for a renewed commitment to realistic and achievable policymaking in the run up to the next election. 

Politicians should focus “more squarely on the end goals they are looking to achieve,” and then interrogate the evidence and trade offs about how best to get there, he said.

Former Director of Policy at No. 10, Munira Mirza, said the state of the economy means there is a particular pressure for all political parties to balance people’s urgent short-term needs, like the cost of living, with long-term systemic challenges. 

“Solving economic stagnation is central to solving all the other problems we face as a country – the way services are funded, how we use the tax system to encourage investment and boost productivity,” she said.

Speaking about policy opportunities, and the choices needed to capitalise on them, she pointed to AI and potential future energy abundance through nuclear fusion. Both have the potential to transform the economy and public services, she said, but realising their benefits for people requires action now, whether through regulation or investment.

Georgia Gould, leader of Camden Borough Council, called for a “completely different relationship” between the state, local and regional government if the UK is to address climate, inequality and unemployment at the pace required. She said such a new relationship could take the form of ‘missions’ – rallying partnerships across the private sector, government and civil society focused on shared outcomes.

Run by Nesta and the Behavioural Insights Team, and working with a range of established experts and emerging voices from across the policy landscape, UK 2040 Options aims to support policymakers as they make choices about what to prioritise. The project will set out alternative policy options and pathways for the future, creating space for honest debate about the trade-offs and testing and interrogating ideas that take us beyond immediate crises.

“The aim is to be future-focussed; to surface a true range of ideas and then to really test them,” explained Alexandra Burns, Director of UK 2040 Options. The Options project aims ultimately to offer policymakers the opportunity to think ambitiously about what policies can address the biggest challenges facing the country, not just today but in the near future too, offering fresh insights and tools to inform the choices they now face. 

The panel characterised the major issues facing the next government as technological growth, inter-generational conflict and economic stagnation. They explored the choices and trade offs to be made about how to tackle these, from devolution to industrial strategy to political choices over the role of the state as the solution.

Opening the event, Nesta CEO, Ravi Gurumurthy, said: “We’re aiming to lay out options, rather than a single way forward. But also to really test ideas and interrogate them. And tackle that certainty with which we usually conduct our politics.”

By Alexandra Burns, Director of UK 2040 Options

In a world that sometimes feels like it’s in a state of permacrisis, it can be difficult to look up from the now. But in order to chart a path ahead, we must lift our heads from the immediate and look forward.

That is why we’re launching UK 2040 Options next month. We’ll be combining the need to look to the future with the reality of policy, governing and ultimately tackling the big challenges the country faces – mapping out the big choices and then testing and interrogating the ideas that surface.

The vast majority of those making policy are driven each day by wanting to make things ‘better’. Tony Blair said at his final Prime Ministers’ Questions that “whilst politics is on occasion a place of low skullduggery, it is more often the place for the pursuit of noble causes.”

I spent ten years working in Government with a range of politicians, on topics like health, education and online safety. And, while there has been more talk of skullduggery in recent times, I still believe that underneath it all, the aim for most – whichever party you represent, however you vote – remains those noble causes, that appetite to make things better.

Starting a healthy, constructive debate about the country’s future

But what does better mean? Who do we most want things to be better for? How do we achieve better? In my experience, the level of disagreement grows the further down that list of questions you go, and the number of options you have multiplies.

Take childcare policy, for example: an area on which everyone agrees we must do better. But there are choices to be made about the main objective. One version aims to enable or incentivise work; another way would eliminate the inequality in access to high-quality early years education. Both are ‘better’, but they can lead you to different policy answers. There are examples like this in most policy areas.

We want to look at that next level of what ‘better’ means. And over the next year, there will be no shortage of proposals, opinions and recommendations. UK 2040 Options will be different for a few reasons.

The options that will shape 2040

Firstly, we are going to stay focussed on the future. A child born today will become an adult in the early 2040s. There are some things we can predict with relative confidence about that period – the global population will be around nine billion and the number of people in the UK aged over 85 will have almost doubled compared to in 2020. What will the defining challenges be between now and then? And, crucially, what steps do we need to take now to affect them?

We want to lift our heads up from the acute challenges we are feeling right now and look across a set of defining issues: economic growth, net zero, health, education and wealth and income inequality.

We’ll also be assessing some enabling areas: technology, tax, power and place. Across all of these themes, we’ll ask: where are these areas heading as it stands? What can we change? And what can we learn by looking at them together, in the round?

Secondly, we won’t be advocating just a single point of view. We want to create a space where a range of people from established experts to emerging voices, academics to policymakers, can debate the options. We won’t represent a single worldview either – we will draw on solutions from across the political spectrum.

And thirdly, we won’t only state ideas, we will test and interrogate them. We will look at where there is consensus or divergence using Delphi-style exercises and workshops, and where there are gaps that need filling in with evidence or ideas. We’ll then work together to improve those ideas by red-teaming them, conducting pre-mortems, challenging ourselves and each other to take them to the next level.

In the coming months, we’ll host private workshops and public events. Nothing is off the table, but we will be honest about the trade-offs (there always are some) because we want a transparent debate. We’ll share our thoughts and findings with you as we go.

How to play your part

That’s our plan as it stands, but we’ll be iterating as we go – and we’ll need your ideas.

If you think you or your organisation could work with us on a particular theme, get in touch. To stay up to date on our work, follow us on Twitter and sign up to our newsletter.